The Mosul Dam
An Imminent Issue
The Mosul Dam is an immense hydroelectric dam situation on a stretch of the Tigris in western Iraq.
Completed in 1986, the dam's structural integrity has been called in to question, as the foundation it was constructed upon is inherently unstable. This poses an issue due to the fact that it is situated upstream of the city Mosul, and the critical failure of the dam would unleash a cataclysmic wave upon the nearly seven million inhabitants located within the flood plain. The risk has been estimated to be "worse than a nuclear bomb" being detonated due to the sheer number of people at risk.
Attempts to repair the dam have been made in the past, but no amount of effort has rectified the inherently flawed foundation. Efforts have included the continuous pumping of cement mixtures into the sinkholes that have spawned beneath the dam, though this strategy is neither long term nor sustainable. As of December, the Italian company TREVI has begun their attempt at stabilizing the dam, though experts agree that this is only prolonging the inevitable disaster. Further pushing the situation is the estimated $200 million dollar price tag associated with ongoing maintenance.
Being the fourth largest dam in the Middle East, the dam also serves as an immense strategic asset. This has led to complications, as ISIS has taken control of the dam in the past, and efforts to retake the dam have caused it to shift hands several times. While these conflicts rage, maintenance could not take place, leading to further degradation and a critical failure occurring more imminently. While plans have been devised to evacuate portions of the threatened populace, the ecological, economic, and societal destruction will devastate the area.
It's not a matter of if, but when.
-Thomas Schmelzle (tschmelzle3)
Sources:
http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/mosul-dam-collapse-will-be-catastrophic-for-iraq/news-story/a5f30073964e5e59699efe075bb4f81b
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/11/mosul-dam-collapse-worse-nuclear-bomb-161116082852394.html
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2016/10/20/Is-Mosul-hosting-one-of-most-dangerous-dams-in-the-world-.html
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/02/a-bigger-problem-than-isis
Well that's not good.
ReplyDelete"Prolonging the inevitable disaster"
ReplyDeleteBut there's got to be some sort of long term plan right? Maybe just an option that's too drastic to be feasible now but will one day be necessary. I don't know like build a new dam in front of the old one.
Just what people in this region of the world needed : something else to worry about.
ReplyDeleteThe strategic importance of the Mosul Damn is probably related to the military operations carried out in Mosul by the Iraqi government. The Battle of Mosul in 2016 involved the largest deployment of Iraqi forces since 2003.
ReplyDelete- Freya James
I had never heard of this dam before, but am amazed by how dangerous it will soon be. It was interesting that another dam was originally planned to be built in the 1990s to solve the Mosul Dam's problems, but was apparently abandoned (correct me if I am wrong).
ReplyDelete-Davis Riddett
Considering the unstable foundation of this dam, maybe it would be best to demolish it now so that there isn't a surprise factor on the flooding. In addition, depending on the expanse of the unstable foundation (which I understand to be highly soluble rock), it could be possible that there already exists underground systems of caves beneath it that could be flooded with controlled sinkholes to try and reduce the impact of the dam's flood plain. All in all, I believe a controlled and intentional disaster would be much easier to handle than waiting for the disaster to happen on its own whilst hoping that the evacuation protocols in place are enough.
ReplyDelete-J.R. Purvis
Do such risks as these merit greater coverage? I’m assuming that the locals have at least some insight into the structural risks which have long plagued this dam. So, if the upkeep of infrastructure is part of a sovereign’s relegated responsibilities, to what interest does appealing to a larger, international audience serve?
ReplyDeleteI see the same thing in the US. On rare occasion, some news piece has for its subject the structural woes which have befell some regional landmark of civil engineering. But, aside from appealing to the higher forces, there isn’t much for me to do. After all, what rational citizen would concern themselves with a far-away issue before dealing with local issues?
I would like to say that it is a shame that such risks typically only penetrate a larger audience when tragedy does strike. It’s as if such disasters are heaped into the same category as those of nature. Often, it is the case that such structures are constructed using modern engineering principles which draw from an extensive body of research and practical experience. The flooding of a river, however, is heavily dependent on meteorology (itself, a highly probabilistic science).
Thanks for the post.
Failing infrastructure seems to be an inevitable side effect of political instability. It's impossible to see how the conflict in Iraq will pan out, but let's hope that it does so in such a way that a government entity exists to repair public liabilities such as this dam.
ReplyDeleteI never thought of infrastructure failing as a side effect of political instability. Interesting point.
DeleteIf the repercussions of the dam breaking would cost that many lives, shouldn't the US or UN try to step in?
ReplyDelete-Steven Rayburn