Euphrates Shield Comes to an End

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ml-ZXoX-CsM&feature=youtu.be

On August 24, 2016 Turkey launched a military operation called Euphrates Shield. The objective of the operation was to clear the Turkey-Syria border of the YPG (an acronym for what translates to People’s Protection Units) which Turkey considers to be a Syrian terrorist organization. As formally described by the National Security Council in Turkey, "Operation Euphrates Shield aimed at ensuring our country's border security and thwarting the Daesh terror group's threat and attacks targeting our country." Since then, Turkey’s armed forces sent troops, tanks and warplanes to support Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels. Through the course of the war, the Turkish military has secured a roughly 100-kilometer (60-mile) stretch of the border and taken the border cities of Jarablus, Dabiq and al-Bab from the jihadists. After taking these cities, “Turkish officials warned the offensive would push the Kurdish militia out of Manbij, before moving south to Raqqa. But neither of those has happened.” According to BBC “it is possible Turkey has got cold feet after sustaining heavy losses in al-Bab. It may also be trying to please the US secretary of state, who was in Ankara on Thursday and was likely to reiterate that Washington would not drop its alliance with the Syrian Kurds.” At any rate, on Wednesday, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim proclaimed “Operation Euphrates Shield has been successful and is finished.” Of course, he also made it clear that the end of the operation would not necessarily mean the end of conflict in the region, as he went on to explain "If something threatening our security happens in the future, regarding Daesh or something else, then there will be a new operation." Although little has changed by the end of Euphrates Shield, this was Turkey's biggest intervention in Syria since the beginning of the war.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39439593

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkey-syria-ends-euphrates-shield-military-operation-binali-yildirim-jarablus-isis-islamic-state-a7657156.html

http://www.trtworld.com/mea/turkey-ends-operation-euphrates-shield-in-northern-syria-326612

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/03/turkey-ends-euphrates-shield-operation-syria-170329211428970.html

Energy Game: Jordan

As was seen in class before the commencement of our Spring Break, there is a history of foreign involvement in the development of energy resources in the Middle East. Presented in class was the case of a US oil corporation in the late 1940’s. Just recently, China secured a bid for the development of the Attarat um Ghudran oil shale deposit in Jordan, after the Guangdong Yudean Group became a 45% shareholder of the Attarat Power Company. The project, which involves the construction of a 470MW oil shale power plant (operational by 2020), is to be financed by Chinese banks and directed by the Guangdong Power Engineering Corporation. The electricity generated by this plant would provide 10-15% of Jordan’s future electricity needs. It is referred to as the “largest private-sector project in Jordan’s history”.[1]

Not so endowed with crude oil reserves as its neighbors, Jordan has historically imported much of its energy needs (approx. 90%, 2012). The vast majority of these energy imports are in the form of crude oil, sourced from Saudi Aramco (approx. 2.5 million barrels per month, 2016). Another supplier has been Iraq, with whom Jordan has been pursuing an oil/natural gas pipeline project which, if completed, would transport 1 million barrels of oil per day, from the Basra oil fields to the port of Aqaba.

Following the Arab Spring and the resultant threats experienced to its energy security, Jordan has since been very engaged in developing its energy independence, namely via the diversification of its energy mix and the development of domestic energy resources. An ambitious strategy, tied with a relatively stable market, has attracted $10s of billions in foreign, energy-related investments. Jordan’s mid-term goals involve reducing dependence on oil products, increasing natural gas inputs, and introducing alternative energy capacity (i.e. renewable, nuclear, and oil shale). While Jordan is endowed with sizeable uranium deposits, a foray into nuclear energy might prove risky given regional water scarcity. Regarding renewable energy resources, Jordan’s 2020 targets are 600 and 1200 MW for solar (PV) and wind, respectively, totaling 10% of future electricity demand. These goals are viable considering the country’s abundant wind (consistently high speeds in the south) and solar (sunbelt orientation; 300 days of sun per year) resources. The projected fuel mix for Jordan (in 2020) is as follows: oil products, 40%; natural gas, 20%; oil shale, 14%; renewable, 10%; nuclear, 6%. Overall, domestic electricity production is projected to increase by 56% (from 2015 levels).[2]

Why is China involved? China seeks greater involvement in the Middle East mainly for economic reasons and it is evident that Chinese economic pressure has been expanding throughout the region in the past decade. As China’s interests are purely economic, this expansion is generally welcomed amongst Middle East nations. It may be said that China enjoys an ‘unaligned’ reputation in the region, much in contrast to Russia or the US. Ultimately, China’s greater goal of ushering in a new, Sino-centric, international trade-regime calls both for closer economic ties and greater economic stability with/in the Middle East.[3]

[4]

Composed by: Luc Guittard

---

[1] http://www.gtreview.com/news/mena/jordan-shale-oil-project-reaches-financial-close/

[2] http://www.mei.edu/content/article/jordans-energy-future-path-forward

[3] http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/01/china-vision-middle-east-160121052018955.html

[4] http://yashnews.com/170316-amman-march-16-2017-xinhua-jason